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Despite it feeling like no time has elapsed since Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in the 2012 American Presidential elections the political circus is drawing back into town, this time in the form of the Primaries. If you are unfamiliar with the Primaries, they are the political process both parties – Republican and Democrats – undertake in order to find their presidential nominee. With Obama currently in his second term of office he is barred from seeking re-election, his spot at the top of the Democrat Party is nearly certain going to be taken by Hillary Clinton. It isn’t quite so clear cut with the Republican Party, who are lacking in Presidential material.
So can the Republican Party manage to pull off a serious upset and beat Clinton or will America extend the Democrats stay in the White House for a third time: something that hasn’t occured in over 60 years.
The betting odds have Clinton as an overwhelming favourite for President in 2016 with a price of 5/4 while the two favoured Republican candidates: Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are both out at 9/1 with 32Red. Same with Ladbrokes, Clinton is a favourite priced at 6/4 whilst Bush is at 14/1 and Rubio at 12/1. Bookmakers rarely get it wrong, but rarely does not mean never, just look at the 1992 British Election; somehow a battered Conservative Party managed to hold onto power against a resurgent Labour Party. The odds do reflect the current political climate in America but two years is a long time in the world of politics. It’s always a tough race to call, when there could be further involvements from people like Lloyd Claycomb amongst others.
Let us take a look at the potential candidates.
Jeb Bush knows a lot about the Presidency, it is a job that both his brother; George. W., and his father; George. H. W, found employment. Now there are connotations with the Bush name in America, mainly around the war on Iraq and the handling of Hurricane Katrina, but most ill-feel has subdued while the economic crisis engulfed the country, with the bankers not the Bush’s being the focal point for criticism. What’s more, Jeb Bush is arguably the most adequate politician to ever come from the Texan lineage, his success as Governor of Florida is proof of this – he is the only Republican to have served two full-terms as Governor of the State. You need money, and plenty of it, to even stand a chance in the Primaries, let alone the election. In this regard Bush is sorted, his family are one of the most affluent in all of America. Bush is someone that the Republicans have been trying to push into running for the Presidency for the past two elections, if he doesn’t run now then he probably never will. His decision will probably depend on whether he believes a Bush can beat a Clinton in an election; his father couldn’t.
Marco Rubio has been dubbed the “Crown Prince” of the Tea Party Movement, a conservative arm of the Republican Party. Rubio, like the rest of the Tea Party, wants a reduction in fiscal spending, taxes, national debt etc, all things that sound good on paper but are practically utopian in concept. With Rubio you get the feeling that he is right (placing on the political spectrum) enough for the Tea Party but not too far right for the rest of the party, however, when up against Clinton, a liberal humanitarian, he will appear far too Conservative for the rest of the electorate, ostracising him from the mid-spectrum voters and ultimately losing profoundly.
If Clinton is to lose the 2016 Presidential Election it will by no fault of her own rather that of her predecessor, Obama. The current source of contention is the militia attacks by the Islamic State (ISIS). After years in Afghanistan and Iraq the U.S. don’t really want to engage in ground warfare hence why there have only been airstrikes against ISIS. Obama has admitted that he doesn’t currently have a proper plan in place for dealing with the problem in Iraq and Syria, and his coolness can be mistaken for aloofness. Many Americans in a recent poll would have rather had Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican candidate, in the Oval Office right now. They believe that he would be decisive, just like Bush after 9/11, and have a fully prepared military plan in place, something that many now believe lacking in Obama, he appears to be a bit of a flip-flopper. If Obama’s lack of military intervention does agitate people then it won’t be his approval rating that diminishes but that of his party, making Hilary’s task significantly harder. If the American populous believe that the Democratic Party are weak on a global stage then they will turn to the Republicans, just like they did during the Cold War.
By choosing either Bush or Rubio the Republican Party would be able to carry the state of Florida and with it, 29 electoral votes. Both potential nominees have spent their political career in Florida and both are popular there, especially Bush. If the Grand Ol’ Party take Florida off the Democrats they will be taking the third largest number of the Electoral College votes off their political foe, something that is going to be very important as they try to counter the 55 votes that California will give the Democrats.
If you were to bet you should back Hillary Clinton. America is ready for a female leader, but more importantly, Clinton is the most able politician in the United States. She, and her husband Bill; who pales in comparison to his wife, are revered all over America, and she will more than likely receive the endorsement of President Obama.